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China's high rates: the liquidity of the game system created
scholars have used income and rental prices to measure the rate of return far unreasonable prices in China, under the system were shown in its rationality.
From the supply side Look, the local government monopoly on land supply for the price to provide fueled engines. So under the system, the Chinese real estate enterprises is no longer simple, but the Land Bank, whose profit model is the large number of land reserves by business coming from the land appreciation of the benefit, as long as the money is not tight, almost no pressure real estate developers, and development to get to the money almost from the credit, the local government will control the supply for you to consciously preserve the value out of so many developers have to worry about one day, , means plenty. Therefore, the the rigid requirements, currency inflation caused by super sent panic forced completely out of consumption of housing attributes, but rather as a natural hedge with commodities like gold, gold does not use value, and rental housing prices in China do not have to look at the rate of return.
In fact, the crux of the relaxation of credit conditions, if the banking system is willing to deterioration in the quality of future liabilities and assets that bear more responsibility, the Chinese super large enough population base, the demand for capacity to pay will not become a reality demands the release of many years. Of course, China's financial sector technology will lower its leverage to enlarge capacity constraints, but the population base is huge. Even if you do not like Americans, all the sub-prime guise of innovation, but the Chinese are dumping the power of three families together enough to save a mortgage down payment.
Bank of China rarely take into account the mortgage lender and the first source of repayment capacity. have seen recently of a book written in Taiwan,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], she was a university researcher in Germany, there is a non- Micro-books salary calculation, like housing loans, the bank did not pass because she had to prove in the next 10 years to repay,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 15 or 20 years continued to have a fixed income mm during the period that the work must have a permanent contract Caixing Finally, academic work or her husband do not get this thing. which in China is likely to do?
outlook in the short term, China's housing prices are soaring once again entered a period, depending on whether banks to relax credit conditions again made impulse. but down trend is still more difficult to form (in the short term), as long as the money is not tight, and supply and can be controlled, face an uncertain future, the strategy developers more control as far as possible and extend the construction of new starts , cash fast into capital formation if, once the situation has changed, it would be , if not crisis, the arrival time, the moment I am afraid to discard most of the developers.
the next two to three years, money has been difficult to substantially tighten up, this round of government investment-led economic stimulus bound after next year money supply and credit will maintain a high level. as long as the overall money supply, real estate developers can not get to worry about money (state-owned enterprises can be directly dry real estate, state-owned enterprises can also obtain credit from private developers, necessary to further dumping.
Although many reasons to support China's house prices fell for it, but in the long run, no country can resist changes in future population and the objective laws of social structure - the aging of the family's wealth when a country constituted mainly by real estate, when wealthy families in China after 90 have (or inherited), when three or more of the property, who maintained the household wealth in this country not to devalue it, it is indeed a question worth considering?