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SW: The rate of consumption of consumer goods to enhance investment opportunities in a larger (recommended shares)
investment rating and valuation: We believe that will continue to improve insurance penetration, the next interest rate hike cycle expansion, the proposed \up to 35% growth, far exceeding the industry; powerful personal business); the pharmaceutical industry into the \Main Product tumor detection protein chip, HPV DNA test kit is widely used, the chip has been granted a new product tuberculosis) and Hua Han Bio-Pharmaceutical (587.HK, Main biopharmaceutical recombinant human epidermal growth factor product sales growth. future products development prospects are very broad);
We are optimistic about the transport sector, and in the search for consumer benefit, we recommend upgrading aviation sector, is growing its consumer properties, stocks recommended by Air China (753.HK high-speed rail alternative and complementary effects, the vast Air Midwest to provide enough depth), and Meilan Airport (357.HK, because of its coverage of high-speed rail can go, and the acquisition is completed, as Hainan Island, the only airport operator and the construction of an international tourism island the largest beneficiaries). We offer an optional consumer goods industry \remodeling plan makes endogenous growth is expected to continue improving, and five-year plan for implementation will ensure the extension of growth), Anta Sports (2020.HK, supply chain management and retail management and control capability excellent location of industry leading solid mass movement; life leisure and children's series of rapid spread of new stores will bring the driving force;
carefully nurtured progressive multi-brand strategy development effort) and Xtep International (1368.HK, low-end fashion line and pioneering sports modes of entertainment marketing competitive strategy of differentiation; channels of reform will bring a significant performance increase.) We propose to \p>
Business Update rice and biochemical
concern), Hengan International (1044.HK, the international pulp prices in 2011 will be a high level consolidation, adequate supply of good Heng downstream; new product launch demonstrates the company's R & D capability; doing similar P & G's diversified range, the company's gross margin and operating margin is expected to remain stable), China's forest (930.HK, timber prices in China in the next 5 years will be affected by tight supply shock upstream; private forestry companies in China a \
Key assumptions: relative to economic growth in China over the past 20 years, consumption rate continues to drop. Irrational distribution of income and social security constraints into the low consumption rate of increase. China's consumption rate increased gradually with the initial conditions: learning experience of the developed economies, economic development, consumption rate with the present consumption rate with the U curve; Japan, the consumption rate in the last century 60's implementation of the \domestic demand planning similar 12.5 \
consumption rate and inversely proportional to the proportion of middle-aged population, China's population structure will change, the future consumption rate increased gradually. We will continue to improve insurance penetration, the next interest rate hike cycle expansion; the pharmaceutical industry into the \years of pharmaceutical industry increase for more than 20%
different from the general public's understanding: the next 5 years China's consumption growth service class (residential, medical insurance, transportation, telecommunications, culture and entertainment) will be significantly faster than the Consumer goods (food, clothing, etc.). Optimistic about the future of medicine in the biopharmaceutical sector, bio-pharmaceutical sub-sector is expected to increase annual rate of 44.43%, now account for a lower proportion of the pharmaceutical industry, a huge room for future growth; as a strategic policy to support emerging industries are; technology gap between the smaller and foreign , the world leader in some areas; aviation's future growth and the relevance of consumption would be greater flexibility in aviation growth on GDP will be maintained or even enhanced. Does not consider the case of streaming high-speed rail, aviation demand forecast over the next decade the compound growth rate of 12% -18%.
the opening of a high-speed railway transportation spending to upgrade the catalyst. Air fare is fully able to, time, services and railway competition; optional consumer goods industry, we believe that brand clothing apparel order system to ensure that the first half of next year, the company's gross margin to be locked, the actual income will enhance the continued strong end demand. Inflationary environment, the retailer will benefit from off unit price increase, while growth in household wealth and consumer upgrades will bring-than-expected same-store retailers. The wealth effect and continued inflation expectations,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], we believe that the demand for high-end and luxury goods will continue the strong momentum; essential consumer goods industries, domestic grain prices under government intervention, at least up to 15-20%; while the domestic retail prices of pork in 2011 for the year rose at least 25%. Downstream investment in the company less attractive, but the brand companies can launch new products or changes in product mix to shift part of the cost pressures, and we feel that a big investment opportunity is in the upper classes of resources and processing enterprises.
catalyst for share price performance: Ping An - once again raise interest rates, life insurance business grew by more than the same industry, the development of fast-growing dark, A-share market prices; Mingyuan Medicare - flagship product, C-12 into the \\steadily.
risk of core assumptions: economic growth rate of per capita income in the second bottom slowing demand will weaken the industry; natural disasters will affect consumer sentiment; national medical support policy change and health spending. (SW Securities Research Institute)
Thailand Joint: from \
from the \I think this is the \
First, determine the logic of these four themes:
1, of things based on cloud computing: cloud computing revolutionary things improved data management, computing power, making things \Depth will usher in a fundamental improvement to benefit the whole industry chain;
2, the Internet intelligent terminal: 3G network was basically completed, deepened in the context of network convergence, intelligent terminals (smart phones, tablet PCs, GPS, etc.) will mark the turning point of the outbreak, just as the \car sales will increase significantly. \The intelligent terminal industry has manpower, technology-intensive, management, high demand industry clusters significant features efficiency, China has a long-term advantage, and in the industrial chain has an important position.
3, power semiconductor devices and passive components: seven new industries in the three strategies, namely, new energy, new energy vehicles, energy conservation, and this was a material foundation and key components. The industry, our foundation is better, has a complete industrial chain, if the downstream demand-driven, as the main gaps and abroad are expected to solve technological problems. Downstream of the new energy vehicles, moving vehicles, and other national strategic industry, the localization of key components is only a matter of time.
4, light emitting diode LED: Lighting is the second large social power, LED lighting is an important energy saving, practical way. At present, the industrial technology is mature, cost reduction, policy support, and our country in the substrate,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], chip, package, application, equipment and other areas have been initially equipped industrial base, so very promising.
Second, the recommended target:
1, of things: the nature of things is to realize people (material) flow control of a wide range of contacts and intelligent,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I like the four sub-themes: security, electronic tags, mobile payment, EMV migration. Corresponding to the subject: UOB shares: (security), Dali Technology (infrared security, military), Changjiang Electronics Technology (Advanced Packaging), Hublot shares (mobile payment, EMV migration), Invengo (electronic tags and chips.)
2, Internet smart terminal: Recommended first-line terminal at the international industrial chain plays a solid brand position in the professional company: smart mobile phone industry chain Jin Sheng shares (precise structure), EPI precision (electromagnetic shielding components, connectors) , letter-dimensional communication (antenna), sunlord (film Sense and LTCC); Tablet PC industry chain LEYBOLD Tech (CUHK touch screen), set hearing Precision (connector).
3, capacitors, power semiconductors and passive components: Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics, East-ray micro-electrical (high voltage mosfet), Jianghai shares (high voltage, high power capacitors).
4,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], light emitting diode LED: crystal optical (sapphire substrate) and dry according to optical (chip),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the National Star Power (package), Han's Laser (LED packaging equipment). (Thailand United Securities Research Institute)
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